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Summary of Study Results

fort Worth Model

5 Full-Outbreak Scenarios

The first assessment involves placing the rectified damage contours of 53 tornadoes atop North Central Texas. A total of five (5) scenarios are chosen. Each scenario features a different centering of the whole group of tornadoes while maintaining their direction and relative position to each other. The largest number of statistical categories are included in these scenarios, including structures, population, property value, traffic and employment.


Scenario 1 Map

Scenario 2 Map

Scenario 3 Map

Scenario 4 Map

Scenario 5 Map
Scenario Structures Impacted Homes Apartment Units Vehicles at Normal Density Vehicles in Traffic Jam Employees in Path Residents in Path Potential Damages
1 17,050 11,940 3,720 635 44,600 5,700 34,640 $811,000,000
2 14,350 8,750 3,900 640 39,300 10,500 34,030 $790,000,000
3 23,350 14,450 6,200 1,730 79,580 52,240 51,300 $2,652,000,000
4 30,850 17,050 10,950 1,830 87,090 55,990 69,350 $2,808,000,000
5 38,450 17,250 19,050 2,485 87,050 34,620 84,020 $2,859,000,000
  

Comparison Graphic

The Series of 50 Scenarios

The second assessment involves placing the damage contours of the Moore F-5 tornado atop 50 different portions of North Central Texas. This tornado is a solid example of the long-tracked violent class tornadoes that have occurred on multiple occasions throughout Texas and the Midwest. Population and structure impacts are compared for each of these 50 paths. This task provides the best opportunity to look for trends in the Metroplex paths and to identify a possible average expectation for a storm of this magnitude.

Evident in the data is a north Dallas hotspot. Seven (7) individual damage paths in that area are modeled to contain over $5 billion of property and over 25,000 individual structures and apartment units.

The 10 Paths with the Largest Potential Risk

Primary County Structures Impacted Homes Apartment Units Residents in Path Property Value in Path Potential Damages
Dallas 33,320 19,100 12,700 73,000 $7,936,000,000 $4,722,000,000
Dallas 28,100 12,300 14,100 58,000 $7,445,000,000 $4,257,000,000
Dallas 30,700 12,400 17,000 62,200 $5,753,000,000 $3,941,000,000
Dallas 38,350 16,600 20,300 78,900 $5,909,000,000 $3,752,000,000
Dallas 40,150 15,750 23,450 80,900 $5,311,000,000 $3,453,000,000
Dallas 25,800 9,475 15,000 52,000 $5,910,000,000 $3,281,000,000
Dallas 28,950 17,250 9,575 64,300 $5,429,000,000 $3,177,000,000
Dallas 30,250 17,850 11,500 68,300 $4,916,000,000 $2,789,000,000
Tarrant 20,350 12,250 6,250 42,400 $4,916,000,000 $2,545,000,000
Tarrant 19,570 14,100 4,575 45,700 $4,399,000,000 $2,532,000,000
Distribution of Structure and Potential Damages estimated Among the 50 Paths. Over 50% of the paths would contain more than 20,000 structures/apartment units and $1 Billion of computer-calculated structural damages.


The "Typical" Impact

If the statistics of each of the 50 scenarios are averaged together, the result could be interpreted as an average expectation for a storm of this magnitude moving across the Metroplex. As expected, a higher average impact is encountered if the more developed paths are analyzed as a group.

Average of All Paths
Average of Paths at Least 50% Developed
Structures in Path:  20,140 
Property in Path:  $2.7 Billion 
Damages:  $1.5 Billion 
Residents in Path:  46,770 
Single Family Units:  11,800 
Multi-Family Units:  7,350 
Residential Damages:  $1.04 Billion 

Structures in Path:  30,950 
Property in Path:  $4.5 Billion 
Damages:  $2.5 Billion 
Residents in Path:  69,400 
Single Family Units:  15,800 
Multi-Family Units:  13,700 
Residential Damages:  $1.6 Billion 

 
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